1: Open Directory Project | The Web Directory Solution Google+ Economic news: April 2012

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

AUD-USD Drops after CPI datas release

Australian Dollar drops after the release of a disappointing CPI number of 1.6% (2.2% expected), this will probably bring RBA to cut interest rate as suggested by the minutes of the last RBA meeting.
Will the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement hold as it did recently or shall we expect price to drop lower? Let's see if it makes it to the 76.4% which stands at 1.01 roughly.
Volatility ( measured using ATR set at 14 periods) is at the lowest level since January the 11th


Monday, April 23, 2012

European Stocks plunge

Sell in May and go away? Apparently in 2012 we should say sell in April and avoid the peril.
European Stocks plunged today due to a mix of concerning news and events.
French presidential elections showed voters are more inclined to a less restrictive economic policy and (former?) President Sarkozy has clearly lost the first turn of the elections; as showed by polls in the last months Mr. Hollande is the favorite, a big surprise was the rise of the votes for Mrs. Le Pen.
Dutch Parliament faces problems approving laws to reinforce fiscal and spending austerity and Government resigned during the weekend.
German "Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing" falls way below expectations (46.3 - 49.0 expected), Italian Consumer Confidence and French Business Confidence also fell below expectations. Particularly worries about the Italian data which fell  7.2 points below expectations; the austerity measures implemented by Prime Minister Mario Monti are starting to affect the real economy and recession is now called out even by more optimistic economists even though they keep calling it a mere technical recession without realizing that the recession is more structural than technical.
Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI for April shows during the European night little signs of improvement as it record at 49.1 (a reading above 50.0 has to be considered positive showing expansion and a reading below 50.0 has to be considered negative showing recession) even though is above March reading of 48.3

Here are some more numbers about the European carnage:

 DAX                    -3.36% 
 CAC 40              -2.83%  
 EU Stoxx 50      -2.87%
 UK 100              -1.85%
  ITA 40               - 3.83%
Datas provided by Forexpros


Friday, April 20, 2012

NZD - USD in a tight range

NZD/USD has been trading in this pretty tight range since the beginning of February, it seems like the 200 simple moving average is giving support. How long is it going to hold? Is this just a consolidation period that will bring the pair higher with a resume of the previous trend or shall we expect it to drop significantly lower? The Pivot points are calculated on a monthly base and clearly show the pair doesn't know where it want to go.   

GOLD - Is the uptrend over?

This trend line start back in 2008 and supported the incredible uptrend we've seen in Gold in the past years. The shiny metal has historically played the role of defensive asset but lately is acting more like a risky asset showing a quite strong (positive) correlation with equities. Will the line hold once again or after three tests of it shall we expect price to break down?

Monday, April 16, 2012

Swiss Franc - Euro floor

Euro struggle to stay above the 1.20 figure against the Swiss Franc, SNB may have to intervene again and again to keep it this level. Will it raise the floor to 1.30 ?